Another summer is coming soon and after four years or 1,460 days the (arguably) 'biggest show on Earth' (not the Superbowl but the Football/Futbol/Calcio/futebol - World Cup) is about to kick off.
Football pundits and fans all over the globe have complained on the lack of excitement and quality in the last 5 world cups. It can be argued that the last truly great competition took place in Mexico back in 1986 by the hand (literally) of Diego Armando Maradona "el 10".
The African continent will have the great opportunity to show the World that they are able both economically and logistically to host such a magnum event. In addition, this will be the first 'winter' WC since Argentina 1978. Furthermore, it will be the first time since 1986 that none of the teams will posses within their ranks a 'super crack' just like France had on Zidane in 1998, Argentina with Diego in 1986 or Brazil with Pele in 1970, 1958.
All the above factors and the great quality displayed in the top European and Latin American leagues along with a power balance of 'regular cracks; (read Iniesta, C. Ronaldo, Xavi, Drogba, Rooney, Messi, Kaka, Luis Fabiano and others) tell me that this will be a superb World Cup, a tournament to be remembered for years to come!!!
I only hope am right since I will be spending a Month in South Africa following (and madly supporting) my beloved Mexico and attending other games.
Well, after this brief introduction. I will analyse below a non-biased (I will try not to let my heart speak loud) and predict the outcome for the forthcoming 'biggest show on Earth'.
Group A
South Africa
Mexico
France
Uruguay
Winner: Mexico. Runner up: Uruguay
Reasoning behind my selections: As I mentioned above, I will try not to be biased however, if we stick to the statistics, Mexico has done quite well in the recent 'Copas del Mundo', topping their group in the recent tournaments. Moreover, the Mexican team has a good mix of young forwards with a solid and experienced foundation at the back which is going to prove effective if Aguirre gets his tactics right (opposite the Korea/Japan 2002). France with all its legacy and renowned players is clearly having the decline of her great 1998 generation (French supporters may agree with me on this one) and South Africa will have a daunting challenge to qualify to the second round, for me, it is implausible as Liverpool winning the Premier league this season.
Group B
Argentina
Greece
Nigeria
South Korea
Winner: Argentina. Runner up: South Korea
This will be Maradona's world cup, please let me make this clear... I am not betting all the chips in one hand and saying Argentina will lift the former known as 'Jules Rimet' trophy this summer, but they will certainly have enough striking power and talent with the likes of Messi, Aguero and Higuain to top this group. South Korea has improved enormously technically and mentally and I can see them getting favourable results against a weaker Greece (not the one winning Euro 2004) and Nigeria which is not the strongest African team.
Group C
Algeria
England
Slovenia
USA
Winner: England. Runner up: USA
England ( I love those ABE shirts sold in Scotland) has a golden opportunity to consolidate their so called 'golden generation' and reach semis and perhaps, the first final since 1966. As usual, England worst enemy will be England itself. The media is not helping the national team at the moment with some smoke bombs (Terry, Bugging scandal, etc.) nevertheless, the three lions have one of the hottest striker right now with Rooney and a solid and supportive midfield. USA will establish itself a contender building up in their successes in the last decade. Algeria could fight with the americans for the second place for I believe it will go 70-30 to the Americans. Slovenia will end up at the basement of the group.
Group D
Australia
Germany
Ghana
Serbia
Winner: Ghana. Runner up: Germany
I believe Ghana has the biggest chance of all African nations of finishing top of the group. They have great players and fantastic pace. Germany will play the way sort of game only the 'deustche' can execute and will finish in second place very close to Ghana. Serbia will beat Australia in their game pocketing the third place.
Group E
Cameroon
Denmark
Netherlands
Japan
Winner: Holland. Runner-up: Cameroon
Holland is always a serious contender the reach the final at any major tournament. They have a good mix of young skillful players and mature leaders who can display 'viewer-friendly football'. I can see Netherlands obtaining 7-9 points from this group. Cameroon will occupy the second slot using their strength and stamina to beat both Japan and Denmark.
Group F
Italy
New Zealand
Paraguay
Slovakia
Winner: Paraguay. Runner-up: Italy
Paraguay has a great team (they led the South American qualifiers for a long time beating both Argentina and Brasil) and they will dedicate this tournament to Cabanas who was shot in the head in Mexico City and will miss the tournament. Italy does not have the greatest side in their lifetime but again, it is Italy! The creators of the catennacio. Slovakia will get the bronze medal of the group and New Zealand will be probably the only team in the World cup with zero point and perhaps no goals scored.
Group G
Brazil
Ivory Coast
Korea PDR
Portugal
Winner: Brazil, Runner-up: Ivory Coast (very close, could be CR7's Portugal too close to call)
This competition's 'group of death' by far. Brazil has a great team as usual. I had my doubts in the last year to be quite honest, however, I was watching Inter's game against Chelsea the other night and I had an epiphany..Brazil could win a sixth World Cup... like a great article I read in Clarin (Argentina's leading newspaper) after the clearly favorites Argentina were beaten 3-0 by a second string Brazilian side in the Copa libertadores final...'Argentina has great players but Brazil has phenomenons'. Ivory Coast powered by Drogba narrowly will rank second place (by goal difference perhaps) Ronaldo's Portugal. North Korea will suffer a similar faith to the kiwis.
Group H
Chile
Honduras
Spain
Switzerland
Winner: Spain. Runner-up: Chile
Last but not least, Group H has the strongest candidate (according to the bookies and the majority of fans) to win the 2010 edition of the World Cup. As I mentioned before, although this world cup will not have a show stealing star player, I consider Spain to be the 'star team' of the tournament. If football is a fair art (which is not) Spain will be lifting the World cup on Sunday July 11th and people in Madrid should be celebrating in 'La cibeles' and all over Spain in a very warm (and long) Spanish night. However, football is not an exact science and mistakes or accidents happen all the time. Furthermore, historically Spain (as Holland) seem to be cursed when it comes about the great summer event.
Anyway, Spain will certainly lead the group with 7-9 points, followed by the Chileans. I do not see Honduras or Switzerland beating neither of the two top teams.
Second Round
Mexico (1A) vs South Korea (2B) – The last time these teams played in a World Cup was at the group stages back in 1998 and ‘El TRI’ beat the Asians by 3-1. I expect a similar result this time.
England (1C) vs Germany (2D) – What a great legendary game for a second Round of the WC! This means more than just a game for both nations. However, England seems to have the edge for this tournament and they will beat their arch-rivals in a good football game.
Netherlands (1E) vs Italy (2F)- The ‘clockwork orange’ with their talented players will outplayed the non-convincing Italian squad. It could be an easier game than it seems in first instance for the Dutch.
Brazil (1G) vs Chile (2H) – Brazil will walk over the Chileans in the second round During the Conmebol qualifiers they beat them 0-3 away and 4-2 at home. This could be a game for Luis Fabiano to show real talent to the world.
Argentina (1B) vs Uruguay (2A) – Another classic rivalry in the second round! The team led by Diego Maradona managed a last minute breath during the Conmebol qualifiers defeating the ‘Charruas’ by 1-0 in Montevideo. In a close game, Argentina will get through the quarterfinals.
Ghana (1D) vs USA (2C) – The Americans have proven the world to be an out coming world power. After their great performance in the Confederations Cup last year and with a great foundation of solid players they will beat their African counterpart in an exciting game.
Paraguay (1F) vs Cameroon (2E)- Cameroon will have the ‘soil advantage’ and will defeat the Paraguayans in a tight football match. Expect this game to go into OT. At the end the strength and power of the Africans will make of Cameroon the only African nation to make it through the quarter-finals.
Spain (1H) vs Cote D’ Ivory (2G)- A great showdown of Strikers…Villa and Torres in one side and Mr. Drogba in the other! Expect goal frenzy in this game. At the end, the engine powered by Xavi and Iniesta and great saves of Casillas will put the Spanish machine through into the next round!
Quarter Finals
Mexico vs England – My dream game, a ‘clasico’, the only international derby that matters for this writer. Realistically, a fifth game for Mexico in a World Cup outside Mexican soil would be a massive achievement for ‘El tri’. In a close game and exciting game, England quality premier league players will make al the difference and the ‘Three lions’ will make it to the semis. I will review this prediction on the 23rd May after their friendly at Wembley.
Netherlands vs Brazil- Probably these two squads will be executing the most fancy football in the tournament. In a high scoring game (maybe going into OT) Brazil with all their history and credentials will outplay the Dutch.
Argentina vs USA – Argentina will show the world what they are really made of and will defeat the Americans by more than 2 goals in the score sheet. Expect the resurgence by Lionel Messi on this match.
Cameroon vs Spain – In a very entertaining game and possibly a high scoring sheet, the favourites Spain will defeat the last remain African team in the tournament. This could be the game when either Torres or Villa consolidates their lead in the golden boot award.
Semi-Finals
England vs Brazil- England’s dreams will end at the semis. However, this result could be considered a success for the English team and Capello due the recent achievement of the English teams in the previous WC tournaments. Line by Line Brazil is a far better squad as shown during the friendly played in Dubai last year when a second strength Brazilian squad easily defeated England by two goals to nil.
Argentina vs Spain- This will be the best game in the whole competition no doubts. Possibly, one of the greatest games in World Cup history. In a game that could go into overtime and perhaps, penalties. Spain will overcome the fierce South American rival and secure a place for the final game in Johannesburg.
Third place game
England vs Argentina- Never a third place game meant so much in a World Cup, probably this is the strongest rivalry in World Cup history and they will play this game as it was the final! Argentina will be the better team on the pitch and will claim a well deserved bronze medal which will leave Diego Maradona happy with his first experience as a coach in a major tournament.
FINAL
Spain vs Brazil – In an unprecedented World Cup final, the best two teams in the tournament will dispute the most wanted trophy in World football. In one hand, we have the 5 times winner Brazil with all their history and legacy, on the other, a team which is said is the best team to never have won the World Cup (along with the Dutch) Spain. Several factors will impact the final outcome of this game. The most important player on the pitch will have to be Iniesta and his performance in this game will have a direct impact on which squad claims itself World Champions.
When I think about this game, the Barcelona vs Manchester United Champions league final comes to my mind. I could say that the red devils were the Brazil of that tournament; they had skilful players like Cristiano Ronaldo and Rooney (who is got similar attributes to Luis Fabiano’s) and a solid team and way better credential and history than Barcelona in the CL history. Nevertheless, a team like Manchester United or Brazil for this purpose need possession of the ball to control the game and defeat their opponents with their particular style of play and this is what Spain executes perfectly as a Russian chess player foresees 20 moves ahead of his rival. If Iniesta and Xavi play 80% in terms of quality as they did in that European final and Torres or Villa jump on the field absolutely nothing to do to stop the Iberians lifting the World Cup trophy for first time in their history. Therefore, I choose Spain over Brazil (60/40) on this hypothetical final.
This World cup prediction will be reviewed every two weeks.
Thank you for reading my blog. Comments more than welcome.
Rodrigo G Simonin, MBA
Latin American football Expert
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